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《大行》高盛:雲端與數據中心子行業仍為下半年最看好領域 薦阿里(BABA.US)萬國數據(GDS.US)世紀互聯(VNET.US)金山雲(KC.US)
高盛發表報告指,重新評估了塑造中國AI模型格局的五個關鍵投資者辯論議題:1)美國與中國AI模型之間的競爭動態;2)中國模型業者日益激烈的價格競爭;3)指數級增長的Token驅動因素,以及企業或消費端代理(Agent)是否能夠證明隨著全球消費規模朝向千萬億(Quadrillion)級Token增長時,Token帳單激增的合理性;4)超大規模雲端營運商(Hype...
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《大行》高盛:雲端與數據中心子行業仍為下半年最看好領域 薦阿里(BABA.US)萬國數據(GDS.US)世紀互聯(VNET.US)金山雲(KC.US)
Recommend
76
Positive
109
Negative
53
 
 

高盛發表報告指,重新評估了塑造中國AI模型格局的五個關鍵投資者辯論議題:1)美國與中國AI模型之間的競爭動態;2)中國模型業者日益激烈的價格競爭;3)指數級增長的Token驅動因素,以及企業或消費端代理(Agent)是否能夠證明隨著全球消費規模朝向千萬億(Quadrillion)級Token增長時,Token帳單激增的合理性;4)超大規模雲端營運商(Hyperscaler)的資本支出/自由現金流展望;5) 代理式AI(Agentic AI)的形態特徵以及代理間的互動干擾。

該行預測,到今年年底,中國每日Token用量將達到350兆(即到2026年12月,每月達10.5千萬億Token)。雲端與數據中心子行業仍然是該行在2026年下半年最看好的領域(主要推薦標的仍為:阿里巴巴(09988.HK)  -1.700 (-1.431%)    Short selling $1.21B; Ratio 15.389%   (BABA.US)      (列入亞太區確信買入名單)、萬國數據(09698.HK)  +1.360 (+4.198%)    Short selling $89.33M; Ratio 47.031%   、世紀互聯(VNET.US)      及金山雲(03896.HK)  +0.020 (+0.338%)    Short selling $43.12M; Ratio 9.162%   (KC.US)      。儘管第一季度現有產能擴張及進駐速度低於預期,該行預期雲端服務漲價/持續的Token擴張將推動雲端增長與利潤率擴張,而超大規模雲端營運商的資本支出亦會提升。該行現估計字節跳動、百度、阿里及騰訊(BBAT)在2026年全年資本支出為1,000億美元,下半年比重較高,將支撐數據中心在下半年加速的季度增長。

同時,季度至今的宏觀經濟/消費趨勢疲軟,使該行將遊戲與娛樂的投資優先級提升至第二位(網易(09999.HK)  -0.400 (-0.213%)    Short selling $262.86M; Ratio 25.761%   (NTES.US)      為新推薦標的,與騰訊(00700.HK)  +6.800 (+1.523%)    Short selling $2.93B; Ratio 17.025%   並列),並將電子商務與出行移動性下調至第三位(但該行重申京東(09618.HK)  +0.500 (+0.441%)    Short selling $326.13M; Ratio 31.737%   (JD.US)      為2026下半年的主要推薦標的,因為該行相信第二季度將是其最艱難的同期比較季度,預期下半年營收與利潤將實現按年復甦)。在AI模型公司方面(第四位),該行特別點出MiniMax(00100.HK)  -43.600 (-8.583%)    Short selling $224.62M; Ratio 18.566%   ,因其年度經常性收入(ARR)具備上行潛力,風險回報傾向上行。

該行認為,阿里巴巴每股盈利下調週期已見底(預計2026年下半年每股盈利將出現轉折),以及騰訊的估值倍數已見底(12倍,已是中國及全球同業在週期循環中的最低水平),這些都是股價獲得支撐的潛在跡象,並預計在2026年下半年出現轉折。(ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-09 16:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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