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<Research>G Sachs Forecasts Pressure on Domestic Biz Profit for CN Autos This Yr, Accelerating Overseas Expansion; BYD COMPANY/ XPENG-W Hold Advantages
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Goldman Sachs released a research report saying that it held the China Autos 2026 Management Outlook Call Series on Monday (5th) and Tuesday (6th), conducting 10 online meetings covering six OEMs, two parts suppliers and one distributor.

Participating companies include SAIC MOTOR (600104.SH), GAC GROUP (02238.HK), XIAOMI-W (01810.HK), LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK), GWMOTOR (02333.HK) and SERES (09927.HK).

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Most corporate executives emphasized accelerating overseas expansion in 2026, including launching more overseas-specific new models and establishing local sales and service channels. Of which, GWMOTOR believed that, except for Thailand, overseas markets face relatively limited price competition.

Potential price and profit pressures emerged across the auto value chain. Suppliers (e.g., FUYAO GLASS (03606.HK), ROBOSENSE (02498.HK) and others) are expected to maintain relatively stable profit margins despite rising price pressures. Dealers (e.g., ZHONGSHENG HLDG (00881.HK)) observed early signs of gross margin improvement, though uncertainties remain.

Overall, Goldman Sachs anticipated a contraction in China's domestic auto profit pool in 2026, while overseas markets will see accelerated popularization of NEVs. Therefore, the broker rated BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) and XPENG-W (09868.HK) at Buy due to their relative advantages in benefiting from higher overseas market sales expansion.

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