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《大行》海通國際:李寧(02331.HK)首季流水增長符預期
海通國際發表報告指,李寧(02331.HK)首季流水(包括童裝)高單位數增長符合預期,經營質量優異。流水方面,大貨(不含童裝)全渠道達成中單位數增長,契合首季整體規劃。受春節偏晚影響2月表現亮眼、1月和3月弱於預期,線下整體中單位數增長,批發低單位數增長、直營低雙位數(約10%)增長,直營渠道中奧萊貢獻約50%流水且實現雙位數增長,表現大幅優於正價店個位數增...
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《大行》海通國際:李寧(02331.HK)首季流水增長符預期
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海通國際發表報告指,李寧(02331.HK)  -0.760 (-3.689%)    Short selling $150.81M; Ratio 45.270%   首季流水(包括童裝)高單位數增長符合預期,經營質量優異。流水方面,大貨(不含童裝)全渠道達成中單位數增長,契合首季整體規劃。受春節偏晚影響2月表現亮眼、1月和3月弱於預期,線下整體中單位數增長,批發低單位數增長、直營低雙位數(約10%)增長,直營渠道中奧萊貢獻約50%流水且實現雙位數增長,表現大幅優於正價店個位數增長,電商實現高單位數增長。童裝增速亮眼,首季流水增長20%以上,顯著強於大貨。含童裝全口徑全渠道及線下流水均達高單位數增長。

折扣方面,整體面臨一定折扣壓力,線上、線下折扣按年2025年首季均加深低單位數,主要因消費及競爭環境未明顯好轉、去年同期折扣基數較高。庫存方面,整體保持健康狀態,一季度末庫銷比約5個月,按年穩健,環比上升為季節性因素影響,庫齡結構優質,80%以上為6個月以內新品。

報告指,2026公司指引收入高單位數增長,淨利率維持高單位數,該行認為利潤率較為保守。公司指引中長期依托品牌力與產品力改善毛利率向50%以上水平提升,2026年由於奧營運銷及相關投入,疊加龍店的擴展以及新店型的持續創新,經營利潤率預計按年下滑但仍維持低雙位數。財政補貼、利息收益或延續下行趨勢,所得稅則將從階段性高位回歸正常水平,總體淨利潤率有所承壓。

該行預期李寧2026年至2028年收入至319億、344.1億及371.1億元人民幣,按年各增長7.8%、7.9%及7.8%;2026年至2028年淨利潤分別為31.6億、35.6億及39.9億元人民幣,按年分別增長7.5%、12.7%及12.2%。維持李寧「優於大市」評級。(ha/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-23 12:25.)

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