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美銀證券:小米(01810.HK)首季智能手機毛利率或好於預期 重申「買入」評級
美銀證券發表研究報告指,下調小米集團(01810.HK)今年首季收入預測4%至990億元人民幣(下同),按季跌15%,按年跌11%,主要反映車型轉換期間電動車出貨量放緩。該行預期,受惠於智能手機產品組合及平均售價可能改善,首季毛利率或好於預期,達到21.8%。由於營運開支控制需時體現,該行將小米首季實際經營收入預測下調5%至35億元,按季升11%,按年跌64...
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美銀證券:小米(01810.HK)首季智能手機毛利率或好於預期 重申「買入」評級
Recommend
15
Positive
28
Negative
6
 
 

美銀證券發表研究報告指,下調小米集團(01810.HK)  +1.960 (+6.754%)    Short selling $3.10B; Ratio 42.384%   今年首季收入預測4%至990億元人民幣(下同),按季跌15%,按年跌11%,主要反映車型轉換期間電動車出貨量放緩。該行預期,受惠於智能手機產品組合及平均售價可能改善,首季毛利率或好於預期,達到21.8%。由於營運開支控制需時體現,該行將小米首季實際經營收入預測下調5%至35億元,按季升11%,按年跌64%;經調整盈利則上調43%,以反映股份基礎報酬的影響。

美銀指出,智能手機品牌在首季積極提升售價,並調整產品組合,更專注中高階型號。據Canalys數據,小米首季智能手機出貨量按年減少19%至約3,400萬部,但該行預期平均售價上升可抵銷出貨量下跌,並支持毛利率表現。物聯網(IoT)業務方面,上半年仍面臨高基數,但預期下半年動能將恢復,海外擴張將持續推動長期增長。

電動車業務方面,小米表示新SU7車型開售後已接獲7萬張訂單。該行預計出貨量將逐步恢復,而即將推出的新車型YU7 GT及SUY將支持下半年增長動力。考慮到中國市場競爭激烈,美銀將2026及2027年電動車出貨量預測調整為55萬及66萬輛,原先預期為55萬及75萬輛。該行相信,小米從2027年下半年起拓展海外市場,或可帶動2028年出貨量上升。

綜合考慮股份基礎報酬因素,美銀證券輕微上調小米2026年經調整盈利預測3%,並微調2027年預測,同時引入2028年預測。該行維持對小米的「買入」評級,基於分類加總估值法的目標價不變,仍為40港元。(ad/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-04 16:25.)

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