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《績後》一文綜合券商於國壽(02628.HK)公布季績後最新目標價及觀點
中國人壽(02628.HK)公布今年首季業績後,今早(30日)高開4%,最高見29.18港元一度曾升6.5%,現報28.5港元升4%。摩根大通料國壽公布首季業績後股價將呈現「正面」反應。雖然市場已大致消化淨利潤按年下降32%的因素,但短期季度盈利疲弱並不太可能被視為對該行2026財年淨利潤預測或股息增長展望的重大下行風險。在此背景下,該行認為首季度新業務價值...
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《績後》一文綜合券商於國壽(02628.HK)公布季績後最新目標價及觀點
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中國人壽(02628.HK)  +1.220 (+4.453%)    Short selling $705.55M; Ratio 24.009%   公布今年首季業績後,今早(30日)高開4%,最高見29.18港元一度曾升6.5%,現報28.5港元升4%。摩根大通料國壽公布首季業績後股價將呈現「正面」反應。雖然市場已大致消化淨利潤按年下降32%的因素,但短期季度盈利疲弱並不太可能被視為對該行2026財年淨利潤預測或股息增長展望的重大下行風險。在此背景下,該行認為首季度新業務價值按年增長75.5%才是更重要的信號,—顯示負債準備金累積改善,高品質銷售動能的正面效應明顯超越短期盈利收縮。

國壽昨日(29日)收市後公布首季業績顯示,歸屬母公司股東淨利潤195.05億元人民幣按年跌32.3%,基本每股收益69分人民幣。期內營業收入932.91億人民幣按年跌15.3%。總保費收入3,584.78億人民幣,按年升1.1%。新業務價值增長75.5%。期內總投資收益355.36億人民幣,總投資收益率為2.21%。

【新業務價值佳 績後股價受捧】

摩根大通發表報告指,國壽首季純利按年跌約32%,遜該行預期跌13%,惟不認為大幅盈利下滑會構成近期的股價風險。公司股息政策已轉向累進式框架,股息派發與列賬盈利脫鉤,因此盈利預測調整不會轉化為股息風險。市場共識已計入2026年全年淨利潤按年下跌19%的預期,近期的盈利風險至少已部分反映在估值之中。國壽2026年第一季度新業務價值按年大增75.5%,對比摩根大通預測的20%以上,大幅超出預期,主要受代理人及銀行保險渠道雙雙強勁增長帶動。

花旗表示,國壽首季業績喜憂參半,新業務價值按年大增75.5%表現亮眼,遠超中國平安(02318.HK)  -0.700 (-1.099%)    Short selling $737.21M; Ratio 23.222%   及太保(02601.HK)  +0.220 (+0.651%)    Short selling $154.65M; Ratio 25.888%   分別增長21%及10%主要受首年保費按年增長19%及產品結構優化帶來的利潤率改善所推動。淨利潤按年下降32%至195億人民幣,原因是總投資收益按年下滑34%至355億人民幣,年化總投資收益率按年下降54個基點至2.21%。核心償付能力率環比提升28個百分點至157%,主要因跟隨同業將持有至到期債券重分類為可供出售金融資產(AFS)。同時淨值僅小幅擴張,核心償付能力水平則顯著提升。該行重申國壽「買入」評級及目標價36元。

里昂發表研究報告指出,國壽首季新業務價值增長75.5%大勝預期兼遠超同業,淨利潤因高基數下按年下降32%,符合預期。該行上調公司2026年營運預測,但下調投資收益預估,導致2026年每股盈利及每股派息略有下調;同時上調2027及2028年盈利、淨資產及新業務價值預測。該行將H股目標價由33港元上調至37港元,主因新業務價值快速增長、較高淨資產及人民幣升值因素所帶動,維持「跑贏大市」評級,仍為內險股中首選。

------------------------------------

下表列出5間券商對國壽(02628.HK)  +1.220 (+4.453%)    Short selling $705.55M; Ratio 24.009%   投資評級及目標價:

券商│評級│目標價(港元)
摩根大通│增持│40元
摩根士丹利│增持│37.9元
里昂│跑贏大市│33->37元
花旗│買入│36元
高盛│中性│28.5元

券商│觀點
摩根大通│首季新業務價值增長強勁抵消盈利下跌負面影響,為行業首選
摩根士丹利│首季新業務價值增76%增幅超越同業,業務質量持續改善
里昂│首季新業務價值增幅大勝預期兼遠超同業,上調H股目標價
花旗│首季業績好壞參半,新業務價值增長亮眼,內含價值增幅略遜中國平安(02318.HK)  -0.700 (-1.099%)    Short selling $737.21M; Ratio 23.222%  
高盛│首季淨利潤增長勝預期,新業務價值增長表現強勁
(ta/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-30 16:25.)

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