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《大行》摩通:阿里(09988.HK)季績或重新定義市場觀察指標 降目標價至195元
摩根大通研究報告指出,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)將於2026年首季(3月季度)公佈業績,受中國人工智能基礎設施建設前景的提振,其股價已大幅重估,而雲端運算營收增長是主要的財務支撐。市場普遍預期本季客戶管理收入(CMR)將實現4%至9%增長,雲端業務外部收入增長約40%,而「其他業務」虧損100億至150億元人民幣。電商仍是盈利主體,但投資者普遍認為只要能業...
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《大行》摩通:阿里(09988.HK)季績或重新定義市場觀察指標 降目標價至195元
Recommend
28
Positive
32
Negative
9
 
 

摩根大通研究報告指出,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)  -3.600 (-2.846%)    Short selling $2.83B; Ratio 27.908%   將於2026年首季(3月季度)公佈業績,受中國人工智能基礎設施建設前景的提振,其股價已大幅重估,而雲端運算營收增長是主要的財務支撐。市場普遍預期本季客戶管理收入(CMR)將實現4%至9%增長,雲端業務外部收入增長約40%,而「其他業務」虧損100億至150億元人民幣。電商仍是盈利主體,但投資者普遍認為只要能業績「穩定」即可接受。

該行認為,市場對這三項中的兩項預期有誤,認為阿里公佈的客戶管理收入增長率約為1%,而「其他業務」虧損將接近200億元人民幣。預期雲端業務將與預期相符。合併EBITA整體影響偏負,但更重要的是「組成結構」而非幅度。

摩通認為本季初期股價將因CMR數字而表現不佳,料公司未來所公布的季績或重新定義市場觀察指標。若公司在財報中披露「可比口徑CMR」,並且投資者聚焦EBITA走勢,跌幅將有限。更持久的風險在於千問投資過度。若管理層能可信地將春節支出框定為「一次性」,並指引未來季度顯著降低支出,本季將成為「出清事件」——合併盈利觸底,之後走勢改善。若不能,市場將開始為「開放式消費AI投資週期」定價,疊加外賣拖累,電商估值將壓縮。該行傾向於前者,但對「千問」未來走勢信心有限。就電商基本面而言,該行信心較高:認為EBITA持平雖不足以單獨推動重估,但方向正面,且隨著競爭基期改善,未來幾季應有進一步提升。

該行維持對阿里(09988.HK)  -3.600 (-2.846%)    Short selling $2.83B; Ratio 27.908%   「增持」評級,下調目標價由200港元降至195港元,相當預測2028財年市盈率16倍,其中核心電商按預測2026財年市盈率14倍、雲業務按預測2026財年市盈率6倍作估值。(hc/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-09 16:25.)

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