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穆迪確認中國「A1」評級 展望上調至「穩定」
評級機構穆迪確認中國A1長期本外幣發行人評級及高級無擔保評級,以及(P)A1外幣高級無擔保儲架評級,並將展望從「負面」調整為「穩定」。穆迪表示,展望轉為穩定,反映評估中國的經濟與財政實力將能抵禦持續的國內挑戰以及貿易與地緣政治挑戰。穆迪表示,儘管房地產行業持續低迷且出口增長可能放緩,預期出口將繼續支持相對強勁的GDP增長。穆迪估計2026年實質GDP增長率為...
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穆迪確認中國「A1」評級 展望上調至「穩定」
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評級機構穆迪確認中國A1長期本外幣發行人評級及高級無擔保評級,以及(P)A1外幣高級無擔保儲架評級,並將展望從「負面」調整為「穩定」。

穆迪表示,展望轉為穩定,反映評估中國的經濟與財政實力將能抵禦持續的國內挑戰以及貿易與地緣政治挑戰。

穆迪表示,儘管房地產行業持續低迷且出口增長可能放緩,預期出口將繼續支持相對強勁的GDP增長。穆迪估計2026年實質GDP增長率為4.5%,2027年為4.2%,這為延續應對結構性挑戰的政策提供了空間,而無需大幅擴大政策支持。

穩定展望也反映對中國財政路徑的預期基本不變,政府債務佔GDP比重將從2025年的68.5%上升至2027年的82.4%,並在2020年代末超過90%。這反映了持續的財政支持經濟,以及假設地方政府債務在債務置換中被納入,以穩定地方政府流動性風險。同時,增長的韌性使得在面對外部不確定性時,無需大幅增加額外的財政刺激,否則可能會加劇政府財政狀況的弱化。(ad/da)

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