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《績後》一文綜合大行於滙控(00005.HK)公布季績最新投資目標價及觀點
滙豐控股(00005.HK)昨午(5日)收市後公布首季業績,市場關注季內撥備較原預期為高,滙控昨日股價下跌逾5%,今早高開0.4%,盤中曾高見139.2元一度升2.4%,最新報138.9元升2.1%。摩根大通認為滙控股價昨午下跌過度調整,部分原因是市場在渣打(02888.HK)公佈強勁業績後預期升溫,以及在一項與欺詐案相關4億美元預期信貸損失公布後,市場對其...
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《績後》一文綜合大行於滙控(00005.HK)公布季績最新投資目標價及觀點
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滙豐控股(00005.HK)  +1.900 (+1.352%)    Short selling $654.16M; Ratio 21.061%   昨午(5日)收市後公布首季業績,市場關注季內撥備較原預期為高,滙控昨日股價下跌逾5%,今早高開0.4%,盤中曾高見139.2元一度升2.4%,最新報138.9元升2.1%。摩根大通認為滙控股價昨午下跌過度調整,部分原因是市場在渣打(02888.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $19.17M; Ratio 6.586%   公佈強勁業績後預期升溫,以及在一項與欺詐案相關4億美元預期信貸損失公布後,市場對其私募市場風險敞口的擔憂。該行從滙控簡報會得出的結論屬正面,因認為中東局勢及該欺詐案導致信貸成本大幅增加的風險很低。管理層暗示銀行淨利息收入460億美元指引存在上行靈活性,並於中東及私募信貸風險下重申成本及有形股東權益回報率指引。該行重申對滙控「增持」評級,目標價180元。該行認為目前風險已被標示,且相信滙控將繼續受惠高利率及強勁淨新資金流入;與已發展市場同業相比,其估值要求不高,認為股價弱勢是吸納機會。

滙控昨中午布今年首季列賬基準除稅前利潤按年跌1.1%至93.76億美元;每股盈利0.41美元。不計及須予注意項目之除稅前利潤按年增3%至100.55億美元,符合本網綜合3間券商預測介乎95.74億至101.72億美元。季度股息每股10美仙,符合本網綜合3間券商預測。首季列賬基準收入按年增5.5%至186.24億美元,淨利息收益按年升7.7%至89.45億美元,淨利息收益率按年升1個基點至1.6%,預期信貸損失13億美元,主要反映企業及機構理財業務就英國一間財務保薦人涉及的4億美元欺詐相關第二市場證券化風險承擔,以及因中東衝突導致不確定性加劇和未來經濟前景惡化而增撥的3億美元準備。普通股權一級資本比率為14%,按季減少0.9個百分點,反映恒生銀行私有化的影響、股息及風險加權資產增加,部分被監管規定利潤抵銷。

滙控維持2026、2027及2028年平均有形股本回報率最少17%目標,全年銀行業務淨利息收益料約460億美元,高於原來指引的最少450億美元。預期信貸損失準備佔貸款總額平均值的百分比約為45個基點,高於原來的約40個基點,該行擬中期將有關百分比維持在30至40個基點範圍。集團指繼續目標基準營業支出增幅維持約1%。普通股權一級資本比率中期目標範圍維持在14%至14.5%之間。

【大摩指業績為恢復回購除障】

花旗指出,滙控股價績後下滑,該行歸因於財富業務收入增長遜同業、成本開支較高及減值支出較大,當中包括對一間英國金融機構客戶的一筆巨額且出乎意料的撥備。管理層為有關觀點作辯護,指出由於合約服務邊際會計處理方式;成本增加是由於匯率變動所致,並反映成本節省確認時間性問題;英國撥備被視為特殊情況。該行對滙控的有關辯護表示理解,並歡迎增加關於私募信貸的披露,但此類撥備相關對投資者觀感沒有幫助。該行維持對滙控目標價153.4元及「買入」評級。

摩根士丹利指,滙控替代基準撥備前經營溢利較市場預期高1%。其他收入表現勝預期足以抵銷較高的成本,且上調淨利息收入指引及其他收入,同時將預期信貸損失上調至45個基點。該行上調對滙控2026至2028年每股盈利預測1.5%至2.4%,並指該股目前估值為有形資產淨值1.8倍,對應2026及2028年預測有形股東權益回報率分別17%至19%。向股東返還資本的吸引力依然存在。該行又指,滙控普通股權一級資本比率14%符市場預期,當中包括恒生銀行整合,認為為第二季如預期恢復股份回購清除障礙。該行亦認為,儘管在管理層未採取任何緩解行動前,中東衝突持續壓力情景下存在尾部風險,認為風險或更多地來自收入而非撥備。

----------------------------------------------------

本網最新綜合7間券商對其投資評級及目標價:

券商│投資評級│目標價
摩根大通│增持│180元
高盛│買入│160元
法國巴黎銀行│中性│154.2元(14.5英鎊)
花旗│買入│153.4元
摩根士丹利│增持│149元->150.5元
瑞銀│中性│148.8元
富瑞│持有│119.1元(11.2英鎊)

券商│觀點
摩根大通│股價對下行風險過度反映,分析員會議內容利好,逢低吸納
高盛│季績符預期
法國巴黎銀行│業績數據未助力股價,但經營趨勢尚可
花旗│季度稅前溢利符預期,非利息收入改善被成本及撥備增加抵銷
摩根士丹利│其他收入及淨利息收入展望抵銷撥備增加
瑞銀│季績略疲軟,展望略上調,料市場關注風險
富瑞│淨利息收入指引改善,有形股本回報率19%
(fc/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-06 16:25.)

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