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《大行》滙研上調本港今年GDP增長預測至3.8% 明年上調至3% 對前景更為樂觀
滙豐環球投資研究發表香港經濟報告,將2026年及2027年香港本地生產總值(GDP)增長預測分別由2.7%及2.8%,上調至3.8%及3%。該行對香港的增長前景變得更為樂觀,因首季GDP增長接近五年高位,達5.9%,加上中東衝突的直接影響相對有限,以及本地勢頭有鞏固跡象。該行指,香港的經濟結構以服務業為主導,雖然幾乎所有能源均需進口,但當中很大比例來自中國內...
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《大行》滙研上調本港今年GDP增長預測至3.8% 明年上調至3% 對前景更為樂觀
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滙豐環球投資研究發表香港經濟報告,將2026年及2027年香港本地生產總值(GDP)增長預測分別由2.7%及2.8%,上調至3.8%及3%。該行對香港的增長前景變得更為樂觀,因首季GDP增長接近五年高位,達5.9%,加上中東衝突的直接影響相對有限,以及本地勢頭有鞏固跡象。

該行指,香港的經濟結構以服務業為主導,雖然幾乎所有能源均需進口,但當中很大比例來自中國內地,僅有限比例來自中東。政府亦已透過燃油補貼及隧道費減免等直接支持措施,幫助減輕部分影響。此外,在不確定性加劇之際,香港作為避風港或吸引尋求穩定的資金流入。

另外,AI帶動的需求蓬勃發展,以及與中國內地相關的貿易有所復甦,很可能成為今年貿易的關鍵緩衝。不過,若中東衝突的影響持續,打擊全球需求,則存在下行風險。

本地方面,隨著住宅物業市場復甦持續,帶來正面財富效應,加上勞動力市場有所改善,消費已見好轉。該行預期今年消費將轉向更多非必需消費品和服務。大型政府項目如北部都會區的加速推進,以及AI帶動的需求,將有助投資活動。基礎建設債券的財政支持及相對有利的貨幣環境,亦應能保持投資活躍。(ss/da)

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