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《大行》摩通:中美元首峰會或達進一步談判框架協議 關注晶片、農產品、飛機及原油交易
摩根大通發表報告指,美國總統特朗普或於下周四(14日)至下周五(15日)赴北京進行國事訪問。這次中美領導人峰會之前,雙方高層官員及其他相關方已展開密集外交活動和貿易磋商。4月30日,美國財政部長貝森特、貿易代表格里爾與中國國務院副總理何立峰舉行了「坦誠、深入且建設性的交流」,美國國務卿魯比奧與中國外交部長王毅則討論了建立「建設性和穩定的戰略關係」。該行指,中...
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《大行》摩通:中美元首峰會或達進一步談判框架協議 關注晶片、農產品、飛機及原油交易
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摩根大通發表報告指,美國總統特朗普或於下周四(14日)至下周五(15日)赴北京進行國事訪問。這次中美領導人峰會之前,雙方高層官員及其他相關方已展開密集外交活動和貿易磋商。4月30日,美國財政部長貝森特、貿易代表格里爾與中國國務院副總理何立峰舉行了「坦誠、深入且建設性的交流」,美國國務卿魯比奧與中國外交部長王毅則討論了建立「建設性和穩定的戰略關係」。

該行指,中美雙方正努力在峰會期間達成可能的多維度協議。首先,儘管中國經濟短期具有韌性,雙方都強烈希望迅速解決中東衝突、重新開放霍爾木茲海峽,並緩和其他潛在的戰略要衝。3月15日,特朗普敦促中國提供協助,中國也積極支持中東和平倡議。

第二個重要議題可能是中美雙方在關鍵礦產和高科技產品競爭中的相互限制。焦點之一是特朗普政府是否願意進一步放鬆出口管制,允許中國獲取先進半導體,以換取中國放寬稀土出口管制。今年1月,美國商務部頒布規定,允許向中國核准客戶出口Nvidia(NVDA.US)      H200。但據報道,內地科技公司購買這些晶片受到阻礙,中國更優先投入資源發展本土半導體產業。4月24日推出的DeepSeek V4已採用華為昇騰950的AI晶片,而非H200,帶動其他中國大型科技公司與華為洽談晶片訂單。至於中美會談是否會談及更強大的 Nvidia旗下Blackwell B100、B200及B300仍有待觀察。

摩通指,貿易無疑是峰會重點。中美高層多輪談判進展緩慢,未有實質突破,尤其在美國最高法院《國際緊急經濟權力法》(IEEPA)裁決削弱美方立場,以及美方要求中國協助重開霍爾木茲海峽的背景下。該行預期峰會將達成進一步談判的框架協議,而非全面貿易協定,但中國可能同意大量購買美國大豆及其他農產品,以及波音(BA.US)      飛機、原油和天然氣,以維持現有關稅狀態。中國希望美方將現有的關稅與出口管制休戰延長至11月10日之後。(wl/u)(Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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