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《大行》海通國際升古茗(01364.HK)目標價至31.7元 維持「優於大市」評級
海通國際發表報告指,古茗(01364.HK)近期舉辦了2026夥伴大會,認為公司短期高基數壓力正逐步顯現,但中長期增長思路明確,路徑清晰,拓展空間仍大。短期經營表現方而,整體營運仍在正常區間,同店壓力客觀存在,5至8月為關鍵時期,公司將多管齊下控制同店下滑幅度。4至5月由於天氣、外賣退坡等原因,同店增速環比放緩,加盟商利潤也有少量下滑,但公司通過回歸堂食策略...
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《大行》海通國際升古茗(01364.HK)目標價至31.7元 維持「優於大市」評級
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海通國際發表報告指,古茗(01364.HK)  -0.360 (-1.600%)    Short selling $51.03M; Ratio 35.012%   近期舉辦了2026夥伴大會,認為公司短期高基數壓力正逐步顯現,但中長期增長思路明確,路徑清晰,拓展空間仍大。短期經營表現方而,整體營運仍在正常區間,同店壓力客觀存在,5至8月為關鍵時期,公司將多管齊下控制同店下滑幅度。4至5月由於天氣、外賣退坡等原因,同店增速環比放緩,加盟商利潤也有少量下滑,但公司通過回歸堂食策略、外賣加價減少差價等方式提升了線上線下渠道實收率,目前加盟商利潤仍可觀。外賣退坡快於此前預期,現外賣比例約50%至55%。

品類方面,咖啡已成為重要增量品類,首季咖啡出杯佔比穩定在15%至20%,單店日杯量約60至80杯,目前大概80至90杯,年底目標120杯。除此早餐場景也是純增量業務。該行認為六代店的佈局迎合消費者習慣改變以及公司未來業務佈局。

報告指,成本端短期有油價、倉儲物流等擾動,但總體可控,原材料結構較分散,同時部分原料如茉莉花成本下降以及持續的降本增效可進行對沖。除此,為推動全年三條業務主線,公司對加盟折扣/裝修補貼、外賣推廣、咖啡拓展、推新/活動等方面補貼將從25年的2.3億元(人民幣)增至26年的3億元,品牌推廣及用戶增長投入將從25年的3億元增至26年的4億元,全年利潤指引穩定。

行業競爭方面,茶飲行業仍是多價格帶、多品牌共存格局,龍頭競爭相對穩定,中腰部品牌從跨越千店到向萬店躍遷,供應鏈、區域拓展及營運管理難度都將顯著提升。2026年將是咖啡混戰元年,短期咖啡價格不會回升,但整體市場將被做大,產品供給也將更豐富,公司在咖啡賽道已有一定的先發優勢。

該行基本維持2026-2028年收入各165億、205億及245億元,按年各增長28%、24%及20%;經調淨利各32.4億、40.1億及50.1億元,按年各增長26%、24%及25%,經調淨利率各19.6%、19.6%及20.4%。維持公司2026年20倍PE估值,對應合理目標市值736億港元,目標價由30.8港元升至31.7港元,維持「優於大市」評級。(ha/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-21 16:25.)

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