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《大行》中銀國際:山西煤礦事故對動力煤價格影響相對溫和
山西長治市沁源縣山西通洲集團留神峪煤礦上週五(22日)晚發生煤礦爆炸事故,造成82人死亡,128人受傷,兩人失蹤。中銀國際發表報告,指為確保煤礦安全措施達標,山西省其他地方部分煤礦已自行停產進行安全檢查。據中國煤炭資源網(sxcoal.com)顯示,山西省內(沁源縣以外)另有96座煤礦於5月23日至25日開始停產,其總產能為每年1.07億噸,預計停產時間一般...
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《大行》中銀國際:山西煤礦事故對動力煤價格影響相對溫和
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山西長治市沁源縣山西通洲集團留神峪煤礦上週五(22日)晚發生煤礦爆炸事故,造成82人死亡,128人受傷,兩人失蹤。中銀國際發表報告,指為確保煤礦安全措施達標,山西省其他地方部分煤礦已自行停產進行安全檢查。據中國煤炭資源網(sxcoal.com)顯示,山西省內(沁源縣以外)另有96座煤礦於5月23日至25日開始停產,其總產能為每年1.07億噸,預計停產時間一般為3至5天。

報告稱,儘管傷亡情況嚴重,國家礦山安全監察局(NMSA)的反應相對溫和。或許在當前動力煤市場供應緊張的情況下,NMSA已將確保供應放在較高優先位置。若因小型私營煤礦的過失而處罰嚴格遵守政府安全規定的大型國有煤礦,亦不合情理。

除沁源縣的煤礦可能停產較長時間外,上述其他煤礦只會停產3至5天。對煤炭總供應的影響不大。對焦煤供應的影響稍大,因為長治市是山西省焦煤的主要產區之一。沁源縣煤礦的長期停產,將使國內洗精煤產量減少3%(基於50%的加工回收率)。

中銀國際稱,迄今為止,事件對動力煤價格的影響相對溫和,秦皇島5,500千卡/公斤動力煤價格於5月25日上漲1%至每噸843元人民幣。焦煤價格的變動更為顯著,山西省優質硬焦煤的出廠價於同日上漲2%。大連商品交易所的焦煤期貨價格同日更飆升6%。該行認為焦煤期貨市場的價格變動有些過度,不排除投機者試圖推高焦煤期貨價格以帶動股價變動。無論如何,由於房地產行業需求疲弱,中國鋼鐵產量正在下降,根據國家統計局的數據,2026年首四個月生鐵產量按年降3.1%。焦煤產量的小幅下降可使焦煤市場更加平衡。

在該行所覆蓋的四家中國煤炭生產商中,除了兗礦能源(01171.HK)  +0.480 (+3.473%)    Short selling $71.00M; Ratio 33.866%   旗下位於山西省的一座小型煤礦(佔其2025年煤炭產量的0.8%)為進行安全檢查而自行停產三天外,所有其他煤礦均正常運作。(da/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-27 12:25.)

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