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《大行》高盛升三星電子及SK海力士目標價 上調鎧俠(285A.JP)評級至「買入」
高盛發表報告指,目前預期,2027年傳統DRAM、NAND及HBM的供需狀況將比2026年更為緊張,且此緊張態勢將延續至2028年,這應有助於記憶體公司在未來至少數年內維持較高的盈利能力。該行認為,市場尚未充分理解本輪記憶體上升週期的持續性,證據是多數記憶體類股的本益比仍僅落在中個位數。高盛將探討此輪週期與過去不同之處,主要重點包括:1)更高的需求能見度,來...
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《大行》高盛升三星電子及SK海力士目標價 上調鎧俠(285A.JP)評級至「買入」
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高盛發表報告指,目前預期,2027年傳統DRAM、NAND及HBM的供需狀況將比2026年更為緊張,且此緊張態勢將延續至2028年,這應有助於記憶體公司在未來至少數年內維持較高的盈利能力。該行認為,市場尚未充分理解本輪記憶體上升週期的持續性,證據是多數記憶體類股的本益比仍僅落在中個位數。

高盛將探討此輪週期與過去不同之處,主要重點包括:1)更高的需求能見度,來自於顯著的伺服器/AI組合擴張以及代理型AI的發展;2)受限的供給增長,因產能擴充較慢及較高的HBM換算比率;3)來自客戶更具約束力的長期協議及更高效的資本支出規劃。該行相信,這些因素將支撐需求持續超越供給,從而形成比過去更長的上行週期,該行預期甚至到2028年,DRAM/NAND/HBM都將處於供不應求的狀態。

該行上調了對記憶體公司的DRAM/NAND/HBM價格預測,以反映該行對產業供需趨緊的看法。該行目前預期三星電子的傳統DRAM平均售價在2026及2027年將分別年增326%及27%,NAND平均售價則分別年增283%及33%。該行亦強調看好的觀點,即HBM平均售價相對於傳統DRAM的「追趕效應」,可能帶動2027年增長約50%,並推升HBM整體潛在市場(TAM)在2026、2027及2028達到560億、1,160億,以及1,680億美元。主要基於較高的平均售價假設,該行顯著上調了對三星電子及SK海力士的盈利預測,目前預期前者2026、2027及2028的營業利潤將達到374萬億、530萬億及610萬億韓圜,後者則為271萬億、401萬億及454萬億韓圜。

同時,反映該行對盈利水準將維持高檔的看法,該行將SK海力士的評價方法改為本益比法(P/E),並以9倍P/E將12個月目標價上調至350萬韓圜。該行亦將三星電子的12個月目標價上調至48萬韓圜,同樣隱含約9倍P/E。基於這些股份相較最新收盤價仍有53%及60%的上漲空間,該行重申「買入」評級。該行亦因對「更高且更持久」的NAND價格之最新觀點,將鎧俠(285A.JP)評級上調至「買入」,新12個月目標價為93,000日圓,相當於2028年3月底止財年的7.8倍P/E。

南方兩倍做多海力士(07709.HK)  +6.650 (+4.831%)    Short selling $1.53B; Ratio 37.044%   今日最高見148.65元。現報144.7元,升5.12%,成交3,028.06萬股,涉資43.93億元。(ad/u)
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-01 12:25.)

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