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《大行》花旗:看好鋰價前景 上調贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)天齊鋰業(09696.HK)目標價
花旗發表研究報告指出,鋰及電池材料自2025年下半年起已走出困境,主要受惠於強勁需求。考慮到需求信心持續增強,加上間歇性的供應中斷因素,該行仍看好鋰價,認為今年內可能測試每噸25萬元人民幣的水平,時間可能在8月至9月。隨著近期中國鋰業股因擔憂高價損害需求而出現調整,花旗上調對鋰業股的偏好,認為當價格上升時,鋰業股將跑贏電池鏈的其他環節。花旗更新了整個價值鏈的...
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《大行》花旗:看好鋰價前景 上調贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)天齊鋰業(09696.HK)目標價
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花旗發表研究報告指出,鋰及電池材料自2025年下半年起已走出困境,主要受惠於強勁需求。考慮到需求信心持續增強,加上間歇性的供應中斷因素,該行仍看好鋰價,認為今年內可能測試每噸25萬元人民幣的水平,時間可能在8月至9月。隨著近期中國鋰業股因擔憂高價損害需求而出現調整,花旗上調對鋰業股的偏好,認為當價格上升時,鋰業股將跑贏電池鏈的其他環節。

花旗更新了整個價值鏈的偏好排序,最新順序為:鋰>正極>電池>電解液>隔膜>電池部件>負極。該行的首選股包括贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)  -1.750 (-2.762%)    Short selling $154.04M; Ratio 16.152%   、寧德時代(300750.SZ)  +13.790 (+3.283%)   、湖南裕能(301358.SZ)  -1.090 (-1.281%)   、億緯鋰能(300014.SZ)  +0.490 (+0.754%)   及中創新航(03931.HK)  +1.880 (+6.250%)    Short selling $17.85M; Ratio 7.178%  

對於贛鋒鋰業,花旗認為,在強勁的電池需求帶動下,加上來自低成本上游資源(如Goulamina、Mariana等)的貢獻增加,成本競爭力提升,公司應能受惠於鋰的平均售價上升。其股權擁有的鋰產量在未來2至3年持續增長,為長期競爭力奠定基礎。此外,快速發展的電池業務亦將為未來幾年的純利提供額外上行支持。該行更新財務模型後,將2026及2027財年的純利預測分別上調至84.57億元人民幣及81.61億元人民幣,重申「買入」評級,H股目標價由66.7港元上調至78.12港元。

花旗亦指出,天齊鋰業(09696.HK)  -0.800 (-1.631%)    Short selling $431.46K; Ratio 0.239%   處於受惠鋰價上升周期的最佳位置之一,因其業務純粹專注於從上游鋰輝石到下游碳酸鋰的鋰領域。鋰價上升支持天齊鋰業在2026年首季實現可觀的盈利復甦,並預示全年財務表現穩健。相對於贛鋒鋰業,天齊鋰業的估值並不昂貴,短期內對投資者具有吸引力。該行更新財務模型後,將2026及2027財年的純利預測分別上調至69.69億元人民幣及52.69億元人民幣,重申「買入」評級,H股目標價由61港元上調至68港元。(ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-02 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)

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