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《大行》高盛:看好北亞市場 H股降至「與大市同步」A股維持「增持」
高盛發表亞太區策略研究報告,看好北亞股市,因其盈利增長最為強勁,將台灣調升至「增持」,並將南韓KOSPI指數目標上調至12,000點。該行縮小對中國的關注範圍,將H股調降至「與大市同步」,但維持「增持」A股。整體而言,基於更高的盈利預期,該行將MSCI亞太(日本除外)指數12個月目標上調至1,080點,維持「增持」北亞與硬體科技。高盛表示,受制於指數權重成分...
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《大行》高盛:看好北亞市場 H股降至「與大市同步」A股維持「增持」
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高盛發表亞太區策略研究報告,看好北亞股市,因其盈利增長最為強勁,將台灣調升至「增持」,並將南韓KOSPI指數目標上調至12,000點。該行縮小對中國的關注範圍,將H股調降至「與大市同步」,但維持「增持」A股。整體而言,基於更高的盈利預期,該行將MSCI亞太(日本除外)指數12個月目標上調至1,080點,維持「增持」北亞與硬體科技。

高盛表示,受制於指數權重成分股及缺乏盈利增長,離岸中國股市的表現目前受到壓制。由於佔MSCI中國指數權重達35%的9隻大型軟體相關科技股未能交出理想的盈利表現,導致指數整體利潤增長緩慢,今年第一季盈利按年下跌5%。高盛認為,在企業實際公布業績之前,市場對其盈利復甦可能普遍抱持懷疑態度。因此,該行將MSCI中國指數的投資評級由「增持」下調至「與大市同步」。

報告指出,高盛對港股的盈利預測作出調整,將H股2026年及2027年的每股盈利增長預測分別下調4個百分點及2個百分點,至按年增長8%及12%,這主要是受到權重較高的軟體板塊盈利疲弱所拖累。相比之下,該行繼續維持對中國A股的「增持」評級,主因A股市場對製造業及人工智能硬件的配置比重較高,能受惠於工業生產者出廠價格回升及工業利潤改善。

高盛補充,雖然下調了離岸中國股市的整體評級,但市場中仍有充足的超額收益(Alpha)機會。在具體的主題投資上,該行依然看好部分人工智能受益股、第十五個五年規劃的受惠者、出海領頭羊以及具備股東回報改善空間的股份,這些優質企業同時存在於離岸及在岸市場中。此外,高盛給予香港MSCI香港指數未來12個月的目標價為17,600點。(ad/u)

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