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《大行》大摩升美光(MU.US)目標價至1,050美元 上調SanDisk(SNDK.US)目標價至1,750美元 記憶體供應緊張料最少持續兩至三年
大摩發表報告,上調美光(MU.US)及閃迪(SanDisk)(SNDK.US)收入及盈利預測,並大幅上調兩者目標價,美光目標價由原先520美元升至1,050美元,SanDisk目標價由1,100美元升至1,750美元,評級同為「增持」。大摩稱,記憶體晶片股在2025年表現強勁,並在2026年繼續引領市場,但該行認為這波強勁表現尚未結束。大摩稱,正如該行在今日...
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《大行》大摩升美光(MU.US)目標價至1,050美元 上調SanDisk(SNDK.US)目標價至1,750美元 記憶體供應緊張料最少持續兩至三年
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大摩發表報告,上調美光(MU.US)      及閃迪(SanDisk)(SNDK.US)      收入及盈利預測,並大幅上調兩者目標價,美光目標價由原先520美元升至1,050美元,SanDisk目標價由1,100美元升至1,750美元,評級同為「增持」。大摩稱,記憶體晶片股在2025年表現強勁,並在2026年繼續引領市場,但該行認為這波強勁表現尚未結束。

大摩稱,正如該行在今日(3日)的全球報告及本週稍早的台灣考察報告中所強調,記憶體短缺並無快速解決方案。這將推動記憶體供應緊張的狀況持續兩至三年(或更長)。短缺在DRAM中最為嚴峻,但NAND Flash亦然。市場開始意識到這對當前盈利持續性的意義,美光的市場共識預期市盈率自3月底已從4倍擴大至11倍。

對於美光,該行認為(1)DRAM日益成為AI建設的主要樽頸,且超大型企業的支付意願仍然很高;(2)無塵室與極紫外光設備限制了供給增長。該行認為這將使供應狀況保持緊張,業績數字將持續上修(基於更高的定價,該行將2026及27財年每股盈測分別上調4%/48%)。該行目前預測5月止季度DRAM定價上漲40%;8月底季度再漲15%,這低於該行在供應鏈考察中聽到的20%或以上的預期。該行仍然認為,隨著投資者對盈利能力的持續時間進行定價,未來估值倍數擴張可能成為更大的回報驅動因素。同時,該行預期股票回購將於2027財年開始(預測2027至28財年規模為500億美元),因為美光此前因晶片法案條款而在很大程度上受限不能回購。

美光也將進行大規模的產能擴張投資,該行對美光2027/28財年資本支出的預測仍遠高於市場共識,目前該行的預測為440億及400億美元,而市場共識為376億及369億美元,這對該行的自由現金流預測構成拖累,但該行的新模型顯示折舊攤銷的影響可控。

對於SanDisk,情況類似,超大型企業持續搶佔高效能NAND市場,這正在顯著改變該大宗商品的整體需求結構。該行相對偏好美光的主要原因,因為在美光涉及的領域中,產品規格降級更為困難,且投入數據中心與AI市場的位元比例更高。儘管如此,手機/個人電腦/消費電子的疲弱並未影響NAND的定價環境,該行基於更高的定價將SanDisk 2026及27財年每股盈利預測分別上調12%及24%。

該行認為兩者股價可繼續跑贏大市,因為基於近期預測的倍數仍然合理(兩者2027財年預估市盈率均低於10倍),且大規模股票回購可能於2027年啟動、專用AI記憶體合約價格談判走高,以及SanDisk在數據中心市場的滲透率提高。在此背景下,市場對新的多年期供應協議關注甚多,該行認為長期協議應被視為「高增長持續更久」前景的結果而非原因,並且證明了超大型企業有意在未來幾年繼續擴大記憶體採購,並視承諾為確保供應的必要條件。該行認為市場將獎勵這種隱含的持續性,但該行最關注的仍是供需狀況。(da/u)(Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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