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《大行》美銀證券升博通(AVGO.US)目標價至530美元籲「買入」 AI運算可見度增
美銀證券發表報告,指博通(AVGO.US)5月3日止第二財季業績及8月2日止第三財季展望僅略高於市場預期,但該行強調重要的絕對AI增長仍維持在2026財年按年增約180%、2027財年按年增近100%的軌道上。管理層並未在高度預期下(考量強勁的TPU成長動能)調高先前2027財年約1,000億美元的AI營收目標,但該行認為這反映了因客戶端持續供應限制而採取的...
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《大行》美銀證券升博通(AVGO.US)目標價至530美元籲「買入」 AI運算可見度增
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美銀證券發表報告,指博通(AVGO.US)      5月3日止第二財季業績及8月2日止第三財季展望僅略高於市場預期,但該行強調重要的絕對AI增長仍維持在2026財年按年增約180%、2027財年按年增近100%的軌道上。管理層並未在高度預期下(考量強勁的TPU成長動能)調高先前2027財年約1,000億美元的AI營收目標,但該行認為這反映了因客戶端持續供應限制而採取的保守態度。同時,多個新的客製化XPU客戶(Anthropic、Meta、OpenAI,以及其他兩家)預計在未來幾季逐步放量,可望為強勁的Google TPU基礎增添動能。第三財季強勁的軟件增長(按年增逾30%)也顯示AI主題下存在多重成長向量。

整體而言,該行持續預期至2030曆年每股盈利可達30美元以上,在2025至2030曆年間每股盈利年複合增長率約40%。該行重申博通「買入」評級,上調2026至2028財年營收與每股盈測介乎2%至6%,並將目標價從450美元上調至530美元,現基於增長加速,以30倍2027曆年預期市盈率(含股權激勵費用)估值(先前為26倍),相對於僅約0.5倍的市盈增長率比仍具吸引力(與AI運算同業的0.4倍至0.7倍一致)。

該行提到,博通在AI運算計劃的能見度現已延伸至2028年,多個新客戶(Anthropic自2027年起5GW、Meta於2027至2028年3GW、OpenAI於2027年1.3GW(總計10GW),以及其他兩家客戶約60億美元的採購承諾)將在未來數年內逐步放量。同時,儘管市場日益擔憂Google透過聯發科(2454.TW)進行內部化,但主要的Google TPU計劃仍穩固,五年協議確立了博通作為主要設計合作夥伴的定位。博通也已完全確保2026至2028財年的多年供應,以支持此增長。

該行提醒,隨著客製化產品組合持續上升,毛利率持續面臨壓力,可能自第三財季預測的74%進一步惡化至72%至73%區間。2)博通在各客戶計劃中面臨日益增加的競爭壓力,因客戶試圖分散供應來源並擺脫對博通的獨家依賴。3)相較於輝達(每GW約300億至350億美元)與AMD(每GW約150億至200億美元)提供完整系統,博通在加速器晶片與網路交換器的內容價值仍較有限(每GW約100億美元),且可能難以從現有水準大幅擴張。(da/a)(Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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