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《大行》花旗:憂慮港府對樓市「出招」降溫為時尚早 「慢牛」更具建設性 薦新地、長實、太地及領展
花旗發表報告,認為近期本港地產股板塊股價疲弱更多是由資金流向和利淡消息因素驅動,而非基本面惡化。花旗整合了近期的投資者反饋以及他們提出的某些雙重約束觀點,並分享該行對每一項的看法。該行稱,部分投資者擔憂房價復甦速度快於預期,或促使政府重新出台需求側降溫措施。該行認為,在當前價格水平下,這種風險為時尚早。參考過往的收緊週期:(1)2009年10月:房價自200...
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《大行》花旗:憂慮港府對樓市「出招」降溫為時尚早 「慢牛」更具建設性 薦新地、長實、太地及領展
Recommend
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Positive
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Negative
10
 
 

花旗發表報告,認為近期本港地產股板塊股價疲弱更多是由資金流向和利淡消息因素驅動,而非基本面惡化。花旗整合了近期的投資者反饋以及他們提出的某些雙重約束觀點,並分享該行對每一項的看法。

該行稱,部分投資者擔憂房價復甦速度快於預期,或促使政府重新出台需求側降溫措施。該行認為,在當前價格水平下,這種風險為時尚早。參考過往的收緊週期:(1)2009年10月:房價自2008年11月的谷底上漲30%後,實施了貸款價值比率下調;(2)2010年11月:房價升至十年高位並較谷底上漲55%後,推出了額外印花稅;(3)2012年10月:在連續兩年房價創新高後,收緊了額外印花稅(SSD)並引入了買家印花稅(BSD)。該行認為,從歷史上看,政策是針對持續多年、大幅超越前期高點的房價飆升而作出的回應。目前房價較2025年3月至5月的谷底高出17%,且較先前高峰低18%,尚未達到政策干預的門檻。因此,該行認為房價可能需要再進一步上漲10%或更多,政策風險才會變得現實。

此外,有部分投資者擔心,今年至今房價上漲後,其增長步伐可能減慢,而這可能預示復甦動能正在減弱。該行認為,房價逐步復甦實際上更健康、更可持續,而且相比急劇反彈,這對基本面更具建設性。該行認為,這種「慢牛」情境可以產生相互強化的益處:促進銷售去化,在不透支未來需求的情況下保持成交量活躍,讓房價更好地反映人口流入和人口結構升級,並使租金回報率保持在具吸引力的水平。此外,2026年至2028年因竣工量下降而導致的暫時性供應短缺,也為房價的上行週期提供了結構性支持。

花旗稱,有投資者擔憂中國收緊對外投資規則。該行認為,這一懸念難以證實或反駁,相關數據亦會滯後。該行早前已指出,在考慮潛在的抵消因素(如將股權投資收益重新配置到實物資產)之前,僅有5.5%由非香港身份證持有人進行的住宅交易直接受資本管制的影響。該行認為,隨著持續活躍的成交量和新盤去化率良好,這一擔憂將逐漸緩解。

此外,報告提到,有投資者擔憂利率波動下的估值框架。該行明白,週期轉折的拐點代表著捕捉股票上行空間的最具吸引力入市點,但這不一定意味著在確認上行週期後就要賣出,尤其是在復甦仍處於早期階段的情況下。從歷史上看,在過去十五年間,開發商的資產淨值(NAV)折讓與房價按年變化的相關性達到71%;以新地(00016.HK)  -2.100 (-1.737%)    Short selling $288.34M; Ratio 28.818%   為例,其股價亦與中原城市領先指數相關,儘管雙向波動往往會過度反應。該行認為資產淨值折讓仍然有效,因為資產淨值有房價增長以及寫字樓/零售租金回穩的支持。股息收益率也是參考指標,近期因十年期美國國債孳息率反彈(2026年至今上漲31個基點至4.5%)而出現一些均值回歸,但可能被中國內地孳息率受壓(年初至今下跌25個基點至1.8%)所抵消。

該行認為,由於市場需要時間消化上述擔憂,並考慮到股市近期輪動至增長型板塊,短期內板塊股價可能仍將波動。在股價已反映牛市預期後,過去一個月投資者的持倉已轉為較不看好。該行建議6月份保持一些耐心,而經歷強勁物業銷售且利潤率反彈後,開發商很可能表現強勁的2026年上半年業績將成為7月下旬至8月的下一個催化劑。該行的行業首選股為新地、長實集團(01113.HK)  -0.040 (-0.087%)    Short selling $57.87M; Ratio 32.180%   、太古地產(01972.HK)  +0.100 (+0.464%)    Short selling $14.79M; Ratio 17.629%   及領展(00823.HK)  -0.260 (-0.681%)    Short selling $121.49M; Ratio 22.160%  

股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價(港元)

新鴻基地產(00016.HK)  -2.100 (-1.737%)    Short selling $288.34M; Ratio 28.818%   | 買入 | 168元
長實集團(01113.HK)  -0.040 (-0.087%)    Short selling $57.87M; Ratio 32.180%   | 買入 | 54.8元
太古地產(01972.HK)  +0.100 (+0.464%)    Short selling $14.79M; Ratio 17.629%   | 買入 | 28.8元
領展房產基金(00823.HK)  -0.260 (-0.681%)    Short selling $121.49M; Ratio 22.160%   | 買入 | 44.8元


(da/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-08 16:25.)

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