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《大行》滙研偏好潤地(01109.HK)多於萬象生活(01209.HK) 重資產業主較輕資產管理公司看高一線
滙豐研究發表報告,指早於今年1月,該行提出相比起華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)的高溢價估值和已偏高的市場預期,華潤置地(01109.HK)能提供更佳的相對價值。市場一直朝着這個方向發展:華潤置地年初至今累漲32%,華潤萬象生活則下跌4%(同期恒生指數持平)。宏觀背景正變得不太有利。隨着補貼減少和勞動力市場持續受壓,零售銷售顯著放緩。這種放緩,加上購物商場供...
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《大行》滙研偏好潤地(01109.HK)多於萬象生活(01209.HK) 重資產業主較輕資產管理公司看高一線
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滙豐研究發表報告,指早於今年1月,該行提出相比起華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)  -0.320 (-0.756%)    Short selling $49.40M; Ratio 27.823%   的高溢價估值和已偏高的市場預期,華潤置地(01109.HK)  -0.540 (-1.503%)    Short selling $333.47M; Ratio 33.684%   能提供更佳的相對價值。市場一直朝着這個方向發展:華潤置地年初至今累漲32%,華潤萬象生活則下跌4%(同期恒生指數持平)。宏觀背景正變得不太有利。隨着補貼減少和勞動力市場持續受壓,零售銷售顯著放緩。這種放緩,加上購物商場供應增加和競爭加劇,正對商場租金收入增長構成壓力。

同時,分化正在加劇,高端商場(華潤置地/華潤萬象生活)儘管環比放緩,表現仍大幅跑贏大市,而大眾市場在2025年展現韌性後,正開始面臨更多逆風。在高端細分市場中,滙研偏好不變:該行繼續看好華潤置地(重資產業主)多於華潤萬象生活(輕資產管理公司)。該行予潤地「買入」評級,目標價43.8元,並予華潤萬象生活「持有」評級,目標價44元。

該行提到,業主繼續受惠於結構性重估。業主將成熟商場分拆為房地產投資信託基金的能力,為加速資產貨幣化和獲取結構性估值溢價提供了清晰的途徑。這個敍事基本上不受短期零售數據疲弱的影響,這解釋了為何該行偏好重資產的華潤置地多於輕資產的華潤萬象生活。此外,市場越來越認識到潤地在開發物業方面的實力。

滙豐研究解釋,華潤萬象生活和華潤置地對商場收入的盈利敏感度相似:商場收入增長每下降1個百分點,意味着核心盈利增長將下降0.5個百分點。儘管如此,鑑於市場共識預期樂觀及其估值溢價,華潤萬象生活看起來更易受到估值下調的影響。如果零售銷售動力進一步減弱,該行認為其2026年盈利增長目標面臨的風險正在上升。相比之下,該行認為潤地近期的股價催化劑更多與住宅市場前景和房地產投資信託基金分拆相關,而非租金收入增長的步伐。(da/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-08 16:25.)

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