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《大行》匯研料內地三大航空公司次季虧損共170億人幣 市場對太古發行國泰(00293.HK)CB反應過度
匯研發表報告,指出高頻數據證實中國國內航空需求明顯放緩,飛機使用率下降。由於燃油成本轉嫁能力有限,該行預期內地三大國營航空公司第二季度將錄得巨額虧損。該行認為,市場昨日(10日)對太古(00019.HK)旗下國泰(00293.HK)可換股債券消息的股價反應似乎過度。國泰公佈4月可用座位公里按年增長15%,載客率提升1.8個百分點,並指引2026年運力增長10...
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《大行》匯研料內地三大航空公司次季虧損共170億人幣 市場對太古發行國泰(00293.HK)CB反應過度
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匯研發表報告,指出高頻數據證實中國國內航空需求明顯放緩,飛機使用率下降。由於燃油成本轉嫁能力有限,該行預期內地三大國營航空公司第二季度將錄得巨額虧損。

該行認為,市場昨日(10日)對太古(00019.HK)  +0.350 (+0.429%)    Short selling $19.64M; Ratio 25.314%   旗下國泰(00293.HK)  -0.290 (-2.431%)    Short selling $70.98M; Ratio 22.132%   可換股債券消息的股價反應似乎過度。國泰公佈4月可用座位公里按年增長15%,載客率提升1.8個百分點,並指引2026年運力增長10%。貨運方面,香港出境波羅的海空運指數本季至今按年急升33%,預示貨運收益率強勁。

匯研維持國泰的息稅前利潤不變,但下調合營及聯營公司利潤,將2026至28年度的淨利潤預測下調6%至10%。該行預期三大航空公司將繼續虧損,2026年預計虧損達220億元人民幣;相比之下,市場共識則料錄盈利。就2026年第二季度而言,該行預期三大航空公司將公佈約170億元人民幣的虧損。

該行偏好國泰多於內地三大航空公司。該行維持對國泰的「買入」評級,原因是近期中東航線分流帶來利好;票價上升及航空貨運應能抵銷燃油成本,同時運力受限下本地市場的高端需求推動盈利。鑑於價格敏感的需求、疲弱的定價能力、未對沖的燃油風險以及有限的成本轉嫁能力,該行維持對國航(00753.HK)  -0.110 (-2.552%)    Short selling $10.04M; Ratio 8.006%   、東航(00670.HK)  -0.090 (-2.786%)    Short selling $4.96M; Ratio 4.207%   及南航(01055.HK)  -0.080 (-2.286%)    Short selling $5.53M; Ratio 8.882%   H股的「減持」評級。

該行並調整國泰及內地三大航空公司H股目標價,表列如下:

公司|投資評級|目標價(港元)
國航(00753.HK)  -0.110 (-2.552%)    Short selling $10.04M; Ratio 8.006%   |減持|3.2元 → 3.8元
東航(00670.HK)  -0.090 (-2.786%)    Short selling $4.96M; Ratio 4.207%   |減持|2.2元
南航(01055.HK)  -0.080 (-2.286%)    Short selling $5.53M; Ratio 8.882%   |減持|3元 → 2.7元
國泰(00293.HK)  -0.290 (-2.431%)    Short selling $70.98M; Ratio 22.132%   |買入|16元 → 15.3元

(da/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-11 16:25.)

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